This summer isn't breaking heat records, yet; wait until El Nino kicks in: Scientists

Wildfires are burning in North America and Europe Deadly heat waves have parked over cities and the worlds oceans are the hottest ever recorded for this time of year A strengthening El Nino is forecast to be offthecharts spiking global temperatures and warping weather all overWhile it may seem like the planet is baking through a recordshattering summer from hell its not quite in record territory YetSo far this is only the thirdhottest year behind 2024 and 2025 climate statistics show But give 2026 time Because of a onetwo punch of accelerated humancaused global warming and a supersized El Nino theres an increasing chance that by the end of the year 2026 could eke out the crown for the hottest year on record eclipsing 2024 or at least come close scientists saidEven if this year sets the record it wont last long Although scientists disagree on whether 2026 will be the hottest year on record they agree on it being a near lock that 2027 will beat out any modern year for heat maybe by a great dealWith wars around the globe in the last few years people didnt pay much attention to climate change because the world was on fire in different ways The world is now on fire again with climate change in a way thats increasingly difficult to ignore said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth Its going to keep getting worseHausfather calculated theres a 35 chance that 2026 will pass 2024 as the hottest year on record But Hausfather keeps increasing those odds nearly every month up from only 7 in MarchFormer top NASA climate scientist James Hansen often called the godfather of climate science for 40 years of accurate longterm warnings predicted that 2026 will edge out 2024 at the end of the yearThe worlds daily sea surface temperature tied 2024 starting in May and since June its been record hot nearly every day With oceans more than 70 of the globes surface theres generally a monthandahalf lag between heat showing up in oceans and then being reflected in the global average temperature Hansen saidSo its about time that the entire globe starts shattering records he said About 82 of the worlds ocean surface is overheated with marine heat waves this year according to Europes Copernicus climate serviceAbout a month ago the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast that there was a 66 chance that 2026 would be the fourth hottest and only a 01 chance it would be No1 for warmth by years endNOAA monitoring chief Russell Vose said those odds will be rising when NOAA finishes its analysis from JulyHausfather said whats changing outlooks is the increasingly strong forecasts for a mindnumbing recordsetting El NinoEl Nino is a natural temporary warming of parts of the equatorial Pacific that heats up the globes average temperature and warps weather extremes across the planet Most forecasts have El Nino becoming the strongest in historyEl Ninos always release pentup heat in the ocean but because of greenhouse gases trapping heat and 90 of it going into the worlds seas theres more heat to release said Zachary Labe a climate scientist at Climate Central a science and communications nonprofitThe amount of heat in the worlds oceans a marker of humancaused climate change keeps setting new record highs Labe saidClimate scientists said what weve seen this summer cant be blamed on El Nino because its impacts really dont kick in for a few more months The fires heat and extremes that have dominated the summer of 2026 are what scientists have long been warning about from the burning of coal oil and gasThe driver of the record warmth is climate change in the background And its a much larger much much larger contribution than El Nino which is just a tenth to twotenths of a degree on top of that longterm trend Labe saidThat warming is accelerating Hansen saidThats because traditional industrial pollution that creates soot and smog which cool the planet and mask greenhouse gastriggered warming is decreasing Hansen said Also it looks as if the climate might be reacting to greenhouse gases stronger than scientists anticipated he saidThis summers heat waves have hit hard in places where people arent used to tripledigit heat unlike in the tropics climate scientists said And theyve been especially noticeable at night making it hard for people to sleep which impairs their health and their ability to be productive at work said Samantha Burgess global strategic lead at Copernicus climate serviceShe pointed to Europe where there was an exceptional heat wave in May another in June two in July and another one going on now in France and SpainEuropean heat waves are not in isolation So theres also been shocking heat waves in North America Theres been shockingly hot conditions in South America as well Theres been devastating heat waves in India Burgess saidTheres always heat waves somewhere in the world sometime but what is very unusual for Europe for this particular year is the frequency and extent of the heat wavesPrinceton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer said this is what scientists have long been warning aboutThese are vivid pictures of not just the future which is what we used to say but on the whole of what climate change is doing Theres no question that climate change has increased the risk of wildfires Theres no question that the climate change increased the probability of really hot nasty even unprecedented summers around the worldThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and data of the text Midday managementmiddaycom reserves the sole right to alter delete or remove without notice the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever