India to cut direct Russian oil imports from December as US sanctions take effect

India is set to reduce its direct imports of Russian crude from late November following new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil effective November 21Indian refiners accounting for more than half of the countrys import of Russian crude oil which is turned into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries are expected to comply with the latest sanctions on Moscows two largest oil exporters analysts saidThis according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler will trigger a sharp decline in Russian arrivals in December with gradual recovery projected through early 2026 via intermediaries and alternative trading routesTop importer Reliance Industries Ltd which has a longterm supply contract with Rosneft will stop taking Russian oil Two other statecontrolled refiners have said they are stopping Russian oil importsMangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and HPCLMittal Energy Ltd a joint venture of steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittals Mittal Energy and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd HPCL have announced plans to suspend future importsThe three accounted for more than half of the 18 million barrels of Russian crude oil imported in the first half of 2025However Nayara Energys Vadinar refinery partially owned by Rosneft and already under EU sanctions is likely to maintain its Russian crude intakeAccording to Sumit Ritolia Lead Research Analyst Refining amp Modelling at Kpler Russia remained Indias top crude supplier in October followed by Iraq and Saudi ArabiaRussian shipments to India reached 1618 million barrels per day mbd before the sanctions with declines observed postOctober 21 as refiners avoided potential US OFAC exposureAnalysts say Russian barrels are unlikely to disappear entirely but future imports will rely on more complex logistics and trading arrangementsTo offset reduced Russian flows Indian refiners are increasing procurement from the Middle East Latin America West Africa Canada and the United StatesUS crude imports hit 568000 barrels per day kbd in October the highest since March 2021 driven by economics and arbitrage opportunities rather than sanctionsFlows are expected to normalise to 250350 kbd in December and JanuaryWe see reductions in Russian crude arrival in postNovember 21 he saidMost Indian refiners are expected to comply with US sanctions and halt or reduce direct crude purchases from Rosneft and LukoilThis is likely to trigger a sharp decline in Russian crude import in December followed by a gradual recovery through midtolate Q1 2026 as new trading intermediaries emerge and alternative routes are establishedIn contrast Nayara Energys 400 kbd Vadinar refinery is unlikely to alter its current procurement pattern as it is already almost entirely reliant on Russian crudeTo offset reduced direct Russian inflows Indian refiners are expected to increase procurement from the Middle East Brazil Latin America West Africa Canada and the United States he saidHowever higher freight costs could limit the scale of substitution by eroding arbitrage opportunitiesOverall refiners are likely to broaden their import baskets with higher inflows from Latin America Brazil Argentina Colombia Guyana the United States West Africa and the Middle EastWhile nearterm Russian imports may dip starting in December Russian barrels will continue reaching India through intermediaries he saidThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and data of the text Midday managementmiddaycom reserves the sole right to alter delete or remove without notice the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever